The reality of health care cost estimates

In his latest column for Reason Magazine, John Stossel brings up an important point about health reform cost predictions:

The administration estimates $1.5 trillion over 10 years with no increase in the deficit. But no one should take that seriously. When it comes to projecting future costs, these guys may as well be reading chicken entrails. In 1965, hospitalization coverage under Medicare was projected to cost $9 billion by 1990. The actual price tag was $66 billion.

What will the actual price tag be for a plan estimated to cost $1.5 trillion? Let’s hope Americans don’t have to find out.

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